Israel Risks All-Out War With Hezbollah. A Truce in Gaza May Reduce That Threat.

For nine months, Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia that dominates southern Lebanon, have fought a low-level conflict that has edged closer to an all-out war. Since October, both sides have fired thousands of missiles across the Israel-Lebanon border, wrecking towns, killing hundreds, displacing hundreds of thousands and leading both to threaten to invade the other.

Now, mediators between the two sides hope that a truce in Gaza could provide the impetus for a similar drawdown along the Israel-Lebanon border, even as the risk of escalation there remains higher than ever.

An ally of Hamas, Hezbollah has said it will stop firing rockets if Israel halts its war with Hamas in Gaza. If that happens, both Israel and Hezbollah have signaled to interlocutors that they would be prepared to begin negotiations for a formal truce, according to three Western officials briefed on the sides’ positions and an Israeli official. The officials all spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to speak more freely.

Those negotiations would focus on the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from the southernmost areas of Lebanon and the deployment of more soldiers from Lebanon’s official military, according to the officials. The talks would also focus on how to demarcate the westernmost parts of the border between the two countries, the officials said; the border has never formally been delineated because the two countries have no diplomatic relationship.

Even if those negotiations ultimately failed, the hope is that their initiation could provide the sides with an excuse to maintain an informal cease-fire and give displaced residents the confidence to return home, the officials said.

Israel and Hezbollah’s openness to such negotiations reflects how, despite their retaliatory strikes and public rhetoric, both sides appear to be privately looking for an offramp that would allow them to de-escalate without losing face. Amos Hochstein, a U.S. envoy, and top French officials have shuttled between the two countries in recent months, trying to coax each side toward an informal truce.